Bold, brilliant and Black – Senator Barack Obama has risen from the ashes of the downtrodden Democratic Party to national celebrity.Almost overnight he has garnered the support of millions of Americans.Everyone seems to know him as the man who will be the first Black President of the United States. Will he be the next President? I doubt it.
It’s not that I don’t like him.In fact, I love Barack Obama and he would get my vote. I truly hope he is president someday, but even if he does decide to run in 2008, I don’t think he’ll win.He recently told NBC news, as well as other sources, that he will make a final decision about running after the elections next month.He is not up for reelection this November because he has only served for two years as a Senator of Illinois.
In fact, I think that will be the biggest strike against him.His youth and inexperience (though I wouldn’t call him unqualified) will certainly be positioned as red flags according to the Republican opposition.By election time, Obama will be 47 years old, making him a rather young candidate.His Washington career will consist of only 2/3 of one senatorial term.I certainly see him as very capable at this point, but if he waited another four years, he’d be appealing to a wider audience.The added experience maygive him the edge over a party rival.
As it seems to stand now, he and Hillary Clinton will be vying for the Democratic nomination.Clinton can cite her eight years as First Lady, as well as at least six years as a U.S.Senator;eight if she gets re-elected next month.Hillary will be tough competition for Senator Obama. However, I believe Obama would have the edge over her. Hillary isvery liberal, and willalienate swing voters.Additionally,there are a lot of people who dislike Hillary.I’ve met her, and let me tell you, she isn’t exactly the friendliest politician out there. Conversely, Obama has made clear efforts to reach out to conservatives, and hehappens to be a personable guy.The only danger he faces by bowing out of the 2008 race is the possibility that Hillary might be elected president.He may then have to wait eight more years to run, and after two terms of Hillary, the nationmaybe looking to swing back to the Republican Party.
Many people are suggesting the two should be running mates.I guess they believe in the adage “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” But how would they join? Hillary doesn’t strike me as type of woman to take a backseat for another eight years, as V.P. Hillary is so far left that even with Obama as V.P., they would create too liberal a ticket.While voters may object to Hillary personally,statisticsalso show a sizeable resistance to a female president.I think her gender will cost her some votes and, in a close election, it may tip the scale against her.
Sadly, Obama will probably lose some votes due to his race.A combination of Clinton and Obama may be too progressive to win enough votes, and right now the Democratic Party needs to be more mainstream if they want to win over some traditionally red States.
If there is one thing the Democratic Party learned from the 2004 election, it’s that they need a more moderate candidate.The typical wealthy Northeastern liberal may sweep New England and the large democratic states, like California, but they’re too alienated from the rest of voters to pick up enough States to win.With Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia, out of the running, the democrats will need a moderate candidate.Obama could be that candidate for them but, unfortunately, he’ll come up against the similarly moderate candidate on the Republican side, John McCain, as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.
It would be best if Obama waited until 2012. He’d gain more experience and could let Hillary and McCain battle it out in ’08.I’d wager McCain wins over her, though polls are currently predicting a 50-50 split. If McCain wins, he’ll be rather old to run again in 2012, thus leaving the door open for Obama.The Republican Party has no one left after McCain, for Rudy Giuliani needs to age a few more years.Consequently, they have no rising star like the Democrats.That’s what Obama is – a rising star, and one that should keep on rising a few more years before reaching for the Presidency.