If presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, a white woman, lost the 2016 presidential election, then Vice President Kamala Harris, a Black South Asian woman, surely cannot win. This appears to be the narrative both Democrats and Republicans across the country like to argue in response to Harris’s campaign. But it’s not true. Harris’s candidacy represents more than just a comparison to previous elections. The political landscape has shifted dramatically since 2016, with growing support for women and people of color in leadership roles. The obstacles she faces are real, but they do not guarantee failure. Voter demographics, issues of racial justice, gender equality and the electorate’s shifting priorities all play crucial roles in how Harris’s campaign might succeed, especially in an era where grassroots mobilization and diverse coalitions have proven to be more influential than ever.
Yes, Clinton lost the 2016 presidential race, but not because of her gender. Instead, she lost because voters grossly underestimated Trump. Polls in 2016 predicted an easy Clinton sweep, with some placing her chances of winning at 90 percent. On top of that, few thought Donald Trump — a man who had never before held a political office — had the ability to win an election. Clinton’s defeat also involved deep-rooted political and cultural factors, such as voter frustration and media controversies like her email deletion scandal. Assuming Harris would follow the same path based on Clinton’s loss overlooks key individual and situational differences. For example, Harris, as the current vice president, enters the race with different experiences and voter dynamics.
Additionally, the political landscape in 2024 is not the same as it was in 2016, with increased mobilization of women and voters of color and a different set of challenges facing the country. For example, the rise of racial justice movements, such as Black Lives Matter or Stop AAPI Hate, have been at the forefront of the national conversation. These movements helped to reshape public consciousness, making a variety of social justice issues critical in elections. On the other hand, since taking office in 2017, Trump’s rhetoric and policies often fueled racial division and perpetuated harmful stereotypes. However, they also sparked a powerful backlash, leading to this increased activism. I believe this rise in the prevalence of social justice, along with the critical issue of reproductive justice, will greatly help Harris and her campaign.
Further, the United States’s ever-changing demographics will likely further facilitate a Harris win in the election. As a Black South Asian woman, many Americans may see themselves represented in Harris. In fact, Americans predominately view the demographic shift towards racial and ethnic diversity with positivity and the percentage of Americans who view the shift as good has only increased since 2016. As many Americans grow increasingly disillusioned with the United States due to rampant division and polarization, Harris holds the potential to act as a unifier for voters of various backgrounds and identities. The general rise in equality movements nationwide combined with growing racial and ethnic diversity makes the landscape of Harris’s campaign unique from Clinton’s in 2016.
The importance of voting cannot be overstated in the upcoming election. In 2016, only 61 percent of eligible voters voted in the election. In an election where every vote counts, mobilizing voters — especially young people, people of color and women — will be essential to overcoming the barriers and biases that might stand in Harris’s way.
Harris’s candidacy is not just about breaking barriers — it’s about representing the evolving values and priorities of an increasingly diverse nation. Her success will depend largely on voter turnout and, with the right mobilization, she has the potential to unify and inspire voters, making her path to victory divergent from Clinton’s in 2016.
