There may be no better team to display the modern shift of MLB front offices than the Boston Red Sox. A storied franchise, once known for exorbitant free agent spending on par with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, has now become a proponent of cheap, homegrown talent. The results as of late have been subpar, as the team missed the playoffs for the third straight season. But, there is hope. As seen with the homegrown talent of strong teams such as the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves, the MLB is a league where smaller market teams can compete when properly utilizing their farm system. In a ranking of every MLB team’s homegrown talent for the 2024 season, the top five (Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Orioles and Seattle Mariners) all enjoyed winning seasons in 2024. Three teams with bottom 10 payrolls are in the top 10 for wins. This kind of rebuild can be done, and first-year Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow seems committed to it. But will it work? Only time will tell, but until then, here is my projection for what the 2025 Red Sox will look like:
Catcher
Connor Wong was a nice surprise offensively this year and should project as the team’s starting catcher to open next season. However, he has key defensive shortcomings (first percentile in fielding run value) that may eventually lead to a position change or a platoon role when third-ranked catching prospect Kyle Teel is promoted to the majors.
First Base
Even though he struggled with injuries this season, it is hard to ignore Triston Casas’ star power. Unless used as a trade piece to land front-end starting pitching, he will be the starting first baseman and a middle-of-the-lineup fixture for years to come.
Second Base
Perhaps the most glaring hole this previous season, as a rotating group of players platooned in and out, brighter days are ahead for Red Sox second basemen. Will Vaughn Grissom become the player the Sox thought they were getting in exchange for Chris Sale? Will Minor League player of the year Kristian Campbell be able to translate his success to the majors? Will the answer come in the form of a David Hamilton, Nick Sogard, Enmanuel Valdéz or Romy González breakout? Although the last option seems the least likely, the Red Sox have a wealth of potential talent. All they need is one to step up.
Third Base
On the surface, this is franchise star Rafael Devers’ position. Enough said. However, with his past defensive woes and injury concerns, some wonder if the seemingly imminent switch to Designated Hitter is coming sooner rather than later. It would certainly help clear up the logjam of infielder options and allow for another prospect to get MLB reps, but for now, Devers will be the 2025 starting third baseman.
Shortstop
Similarly to second base this year, the loss of Trevor Story for nearly the entire year made this position look bleak at times. However, Ceddanne Rafaela’s strong rookie campaign helped plug the gap well enough. With Story now healthy and third-ranked MLB prospect Marcelo Mayer nearing MLB readiness, Rafaela should return to his primary outfield spot. The only question remaining is who will get the starting nod when Mayer is ready. Manager Alex Cora will have a tough decision to make between allowing for the growth of a potential young star and getting enough reps for a player making $22.5 million in the 2025 season, although one could perceivably be moved to third if necessary.
Outfield
What do you do when you have two AL Rookie of the Year candidates, an All-Star Game MVP, the #1 ranked prospect in baseball, a top candidate for AL comeback player of the year and a veteran presence who mashes lefties all battling for three to four spots? Decisions like this are why I have not been entrusted with the Boston Red Sox general manager position. Cedanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu have had great rookie seasons, Jarren Duran has enjoyed a breakout season both offensively and defensively, and Roman Anthony looks like a superstar in the making at just 20 years old. While I believe these four will be the outfield core come Opening Day, Tyler O’Neill and Rob Refsnyder have made this decision much more difficult. O’Neill offers an elusive combination of high power and elite defense, and Refsnyder is a lefty pitcher’s nightmare while offering veteran leadership in a clubhouse that projects to be one of the league’s youngest in 2025. Ultimately, youth and potential should win out, unless Breslow wants to deal for pitching help.
Designated Hitter
Mid-season, this spot would have been a complete toss-up. However, Masataka Yoshida’s strong July and August, as well as his expensive, undesirable contract, puts him very much in the conversation to stick around next year. If another team will offer up prospect value for Yoshida, expect the Sox to look to make a deal.
Starting Pitching
It’s time, John Henry. The notoriously stingy owner of the Red Sox has seemingly refused for some time, but Boston needs a true No. 1. Even with the success of Tanner Houck, the resurgence of Brayan Bello, and the return of Lucas Giolito, this rotation needs star power. Pitching Coach Andrew Bailey has done a very impressive job turning this into a top-10 group in terms of ERA, but needs more to work with. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried or young Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, if he decides to come to the MLB, would all be great options. A trade for young White Sox star Garrett Crochet would fill this hole as well, but will require a valuable return. Expect Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts to compete for the fifth spot, as Nick Pivetta is likely to test the free agent market this off-season.
Bullpen
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but this is a positional group that struggled but has hope for the future. With an emerging young core of Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock, Luis Guerrero and Zach Penrod, this group could be far better next year. Project Liam Hendriks to replace the almost certainly leaving Kenley Jansen in the closer role, unless Slaten takes it, and prospects to be promoted throughout the season.
