The San Francisco 49ers are nursing a nasty Super Bowl hangover this season. The team has seven NFC title game appearances in the past 13 years and zero titles to show for it. Never have I ever seen a team so talented choke so religiously.
The team has a history of starting slow, and this year is no exception. Although their two-game winning streak puts them at 5-4 as of Nov. 11, they look eerily familiar to the team that blew double-digit fourth-quarter leads to supposedly inferior NFC West foes in Weeks Three and Five. So, what’s the deal?
Firstly, the 49ers continue to suffer from a rash of injured playmakers on both sides of the ball. Every team loses key players to injury, but no roster is as banged up as the Niners right now. Of the 11 active players with at least one Pro Bowl selection, nine have missed playing time due to injuries.
Pro Bowl picks Safety Talanoa Hufanga, defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk suffered long-term, if not season-ending injuries. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who tore his Achilles in last year’s Super Bowl, has been out for almost eight months and is still questionable to return this season.
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and tight end George Kittle have each missed at least one game this season, and Samuel Sr. continues to struggle with respiratory issues lingering from his pneumonia. Linebacker Fred Warner, left tackle Trent Williams, defensive end Nick Bosa and cornerback Charvarius Ward have also dealt with injuries that have limited their playing time.
Running back Christian McCaffrey’s absence for the first half of the season — he returned last week after dealing with Achilles tendonitis since early August — was felt tremendously. His ability as a route runner and receiver allows him to win one-on-ones and snag easy catches.
The Niners recently extended McCaffrey, Williams and Aiyuk’s contracts and will soon have to broker new deals with Greenlaw, Ward, Samuel, Kittle and quarterback Brock Purdy. Defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw and defensive end Chase Young’s offseason departures left significant gaps in the front seven for free agents like DT Maliek Collins to fill.
Offensively, wide receiver Jauan Jennings and running back Jordan Mason have stepped up in Aiyuk and CMC’s absence, but the mounting pressure of this star-studded injury report is only exacerbated by the rising number of high-priced contracts, relinquished draft picks and bleeding roster.
My instinct is to blame everything on Kyle Shanahan, whose miserable all-slants pass patterns and fetish for having injured All-Pros have turned this dynasty into a treadmill. Part of the reason he has blown so many double-digit leads — he’s lost 18 regular season games by 10+ points, which is the most in 49ers coaching history — is his offensive strategy. His offensive scheme puts Purdy in danger; the lack of protection forces Purdy to throw checkdown passes, even when outside targets are open for bigger gains. Never was this more evident than against Brian Flores’ Vikings defense in Week Two.
After having the fourth fewest turnovers in the league last year, San Francisco is now tied for the second most. This is even more concerning, considering how critical turnover margins have been to this team’s success historically: From 2019 to 2023, the 49ers were 21-0 when they were +2 or better in the margin, and 5-22 when they lost it.
In order to create a pocket, Shanahan needs to execute draw plays — which are very effective plays against blitz and pressure defense — and stop acting like right tackle Cole McKivitz has the same speed needed to create a pocket for Purdy on the blitz. On a more positive note, offensive lineman Dominick Puni shows promise, earning the highest PFF grade in Week 10. Still, the team can’t win games with an offensive line that is ranked 24th by PFF metrics and consists of 36-year-old Williams, a third-round rookie and three other guys who appear to be afraid of physical contact.
The bottom line is the offensive line needs more assets. Again, fans look to Shanahan and General Manager John Lynch — the same duo that drafted quarterback Trey Lance in 2021.
The onus of failure is not entirely on Shanahan. Defensive Coordinator Nick Sorensen is getting out-coached on the other side of the ball. The 49ers pride themselves on elite defense, but they are failing to live up to standards set years prior.
Bosa, who led the league in sacks last season, had the most missed tackles in Week 10, with only two opportunities for pressure against Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. All-pro linebacker Fred Warner is having a career season — with a tackling grade of 78.0, a defensive grade of 94.1, and a coverage grade of 93.5 — but that alone won’t be enough to stop the Packer’s rushing offense, which has been virtually unstoppable this season.
Sorensen lets opposing quarterbacks sit in the pocket for disgusting amounts of time and doesn’t take advantage of the blitz. In the Week 10 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen killed Sorensen on the inside run. Former Niners DC Steve Wilks was fired last season for underperforming with an elite talent on defense, and who came along to replace him? A guy whose defensive scheme lets Mayfield do 360s in the pocket.
In addition to shoddy tackles and ineffective blitzes, the run defense has also been a glaring weakness, allowing an average of 106.2 yards per game, compared to 98.7 yards per game in 2023. They are giving up 4.7 yards per carry (21st in the NFL), have a 55% success rate on run plays (25th) and are giving up a 43.3% conversion rate on third-and-seven or longer (31st). Even more concerning, the 49ers’ scoring defense has dropped from third in the league in 2023 to 16th in 2024.
Greenlaw’s potential return will hopefully bring the defensive speed needed to cut yards allowed, but it’s fair to wonder if they have the talent required to play like the Niner’s defense of old.
The red zone is a significant area of weakness as well. The 49ers have converted just 47.37% of their red zone drives into touchdowns, a substantial drop from 2023 when they led the NFL in red zone touchdowns with a 68% rate. This deficit emerged in humiliating fashion against the Arizona Cardinals in Week Five, when the 49ers were 1-of-6 in red zone trips after going a combined 9-of-9 against Arizona last year.
Poor execution in the red area forces the team to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, which is a point differential and a loss of momentum. Some blame falls on Shanahan, whose ultra-conservative playcalling allows opposing teams to dictate games in the red.
This is where the Niners have really missed the versatility of McCaffrey — who led the league in touches, scrimmage yards and touchdowns in the red zone last season — as a running and receiving threat. Without CMC as a target, Purdy has had to hold onto the ball even longer, with an average time to throw in the red zone of 3.43 seconds, up from 2.97 last year.
The special teams unit continues to haunt the team. They have a minus-0.40 win probability added on special teams (27th in the NFL) and rank 31st in special teams DVOA (minus-7.9%). In Week Three, they gave up a first down on a fake punt and a 38-yard punt return, which set the Rams up for the winning field goal. Special Teams Coordinator Brian Schneider’s lack of organization has forced miscues that cost the Niners leads throughout the season. Kicker Jake Moody, who returned from a high ankle sprain, missed three consecutive 50-and-inside kicks in his first game back against Tampa. The final moments of this Week 10 matchup epitomize this fragility: with three fouls in the last minute of the game, unforced errors and special teams miscues, the team did virtually everything they could to screw up on the final drive.
Moody made his final kick, and the team came away with a much-needed win, but 1-4 on field goal completion does not bode well for a team that so often settles for field goals over touchdowns.
The 2023 regular season powerhouse enjoyed long winning streaks and wide-margin victories. For the holdovers on this year’s roster, detrimental play calling, a rash of injuries and failed red zone execution have culminated in a disappointing midseason review. The squandered opportunities thus far serve as a painful reminder of the franchise’s inconsistency: it’s a thin line between 7-2 and 5-4.
CMC’s return has injected some much-needed versatility into the Niners’ run game, and recent wins should revive team morale, but as long as Kyle Shanahan continues to call absurd run plays on third and long, playoff success is not guaranteed.
On the bright side, Ronnie Bell saw zero minutes of field time against Tampa.
