“The Mavs traded Luka?! For AD?!” On Feb. 1, these incredulous words echoed all throughout the basketball world, from the most casual fans to the most fervent insiders. It did not make any sense. 25-year-old Luka Doncic, a superstar in every sense of the word, is coming off five straight seasons of appearing on the All-NBA First Team. He finished third in MVP voting last year, averaging 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game, all while taking the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals before falling to the Boston Celtics. Sure, Doncic has been out for over a month with a calf injury, but he has had a healthy career so far, having never played under 60 games in a season.
Despite his nearly perfect stats, the Mavericks decided to trade Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers. The Mavericks received Anthony Davis in return, a fantastic player, but at 31 years old, he may be nearing the end of his prime. When healthy, Davis has shown his ability to score and rebound as well as ever, but his health has not been a certainty the past few years: Davis has only played over 60 games twice in the last five seasons. In his Mavericks debut, he exited early with a leg injury, which fortunately does not appear to be severe. This trade may have been better received if the Lakers included supplementary value along with Davis, but the Mavericks only gained Max Christie, a backup guard and a 2029 first round pick.
So, why did the Mavericks let Doncic go? The tension between Doncic and the Mavericks’ front office, due to concerns about his conditioning and diet, may have been so severe that the team didn’t want to risk running out of time before the trade deadline. The Mavericks may also have hope in a team centered around tall, physical frontcourt with Kyrie Irving facilitating the offense, and a return from sharpshooter Klay Thompson.
The Mavericks currently hold a 28-26 record, as of Feb. 11, which places them as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. Yet, given this trade and their past success, the team is clearly determined to increase their win count. Fans should hope that this extreme gamble pays off, or else this trade could go down along with the infamous 2013 Celtics-Nets trade as one of the worst in the history of the NBA.
In the present-day NBA, teams seem to hold one of two main tactics: some teams try to build up assets in order to win in the current or upcoming seasons, while others stockpile future picks. The latter could be as a result of an aging, struggling team, or the inability to draw high-profile free agents to their team. The Boston Celtics, 2024 NBA Champions and current second place holders in the Eastern Conference, for example, had homegrown stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but came short of an NBA Championship year after year. The acquisitions of Al Horford in 2021, Derrick White in 2022 and Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday in 2023 finally established a championship roster.
This is not the only pathway to sustained team success, however. In 2019, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded all-star players Paul George and Russell Westbrook for nine future first round picks. The George deal gave the team Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, their current superstar point guard, and the Westbrook deal landed them Chris Paul, who made an all-star team during his OKC tenure. In the years following, the franchise has continued stockpiling picks, and they have 13 first round picks in the next seven drafts. The Thunder currently holds a 7.5 game lead over the rest of the Western Conference. This strategy has allowed the team to not only flourish in the current season, but also in the foreseeable future. Evidently, both of these two strategies can lead to success.
Do the Mavericks truly think they are in a position to attempt the Celtics’ strategy (the same team that bested them in the finals last year)? Does Davis mesh with the roster well enough to overcome the Texas-sized hole Doncic leaves? Should the Mavericks have shipped Doncic away for an immense amount of first round picks to spark their own Thunder rebuild? And are the Lakers title favorites now? If Doncic plays as well as most people expect, he could take the reins for the Lakers as LeBron James’ retirement becomes more likely in the near future.
The Lakers are currently fourth in the Western Conference, but the sky is the limit with James and Doncic sharing the court. Doncic still has another year remaining on his contract after the 2024-2025 season, but although he is no longer eligible for the five-year, $345 million supermax contract as a result of the trade, the Lakers should be the frontrunner to either extend or re-sign him. The team has a great organizational history of success, a front office willing to spend for their stars and a media market that will translate Doncic’s success to lucrative sponsorship deals.
On the other side, there is a chance the Mavericks walk out of this deal as winners. If Davis really is the missing piece for the Mavericks roster, and they end up with a NBA Finals championship in the next year or two, this deal will look a whole lot better. Also, if Doncic does not live up to expectations or ends up walking in free agency, the cost of the deal will be much easier for Dallas fans to swallow. As a nice kicker, the Lakers’ 2029 pick could end up having some value after all.
In the end, while this trade may initially seem like a move a Laker fan would make in an NBA 2K video game, it’s important to remember that anything can happen in the NBA. The unpredictable nature of the league could eventually make this trade seem more sensible than it appears at first glance.
