Leicester City in 2015-16. Blackburn Rovers in 1994-95. Ipswich Town in 2000-01. Newcastle United in 2022-23. The Premier League has been blessed with some pivotal underdog stories — ones that prove just how close the competition is getting.
This season, Nottingham Forest, who barely escaped relegation last season, have fulfilled that role. Currently standing at an astonishing third place in the league, Forest have defied expectations and are still fighting for a Champions League spot next season. How did they undergo such a significant upturn in form? What specific factors have led to this exceptional season from the Garibaldis?
Forest are not the most exciting team to watch. You will not see a magical Mo Salah finesse shot or a Kevin De Bruyne screamer every game. Yet, they still win. How? They defend well. Forest had one of the worst defenses last season, ranking sixth in total number of goals conceded. This season, only three teams (Liverpool, Arsenal and Bournemouth) have conceded fewer goals than them. This defensive improvement has come as a result of various changes. Firstly, the signing of Nikola Milenkovic from Fiorentina for just $15 million has transformed their defensive record.
One of the main problems faced by Forest last season was set-pieces — they conceded 22 goals off of them, the highest in the league. The 6-foot-5 Milenkovic, who had the second highest percentage of set-piece interceptions among all of Europe’s top five leagues, has made the difference. His partnership with 22-year-old Brazilian defender Murillo has been solid, complemented by goalkeeper Matz Sels, who had particularly impressive performances against Chelsea and recently Arsenal. Sels has averaged 1.15 goals conceded per game and has a save percentage of 72%. Forest have kept 11 clean sheets, seven more than they had through the entirety of last season. Their defensive stability allows them to effectively counter attack their opponents, without having as much possession.
These counter attacks have been led by standout attacker Chris Wood. The 33-year-old New Zealand international has put together an impressive season, scoring 5.2 goals more than his expected goals. He has scored 41 percent of Forest’s total goal tally, and he has been the ideal target man for a Forest team that needs a presence in the opponent’s box. Wood also has 0.74 goals per 90 minutes, among the best in the league. His consistency and lethal finishing has allowed Forest to win big games against Tottenham and Manchester United.
Wood is surrounded by speedy wingers Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, who create space for him by drawing defenders towards them. The overlapping runs of Neco Williams and Ola Aina from the full-back positions mean that Wood receives plenty of room to run on the pitch. Former Wolves player Morgan Gibbs-White has also been vital in the assist category, creating the most chances within the team so far. This front four has been vital to Forest’s attacking prowess, contributing 52 goals and assists amongst them. The fact that Forest have almost matched their goal tally from last season highlights the improvement in their scoring abilities.
An understated aspect of Forest’s success this season has been their lack of injuries compared to other teams. Strong squad depth has allowed them to rest key players when needed. The presence of Taiwo Awoniyi as backup striker has taken the strain off Chris Wood. Awoniyi has delivered when called upon, and has shown in the past that he can score in the Premier League. Willy Boly and Morato provide cover in the centre-back positions, while Alex Moreno is a reliable full-back option. In the middle of the park, there are plenty of options. Ryan Yates, Nicolás Domínguez, Ibrahim Sangaré, Danilo and Elliot Anderson can all play in the double-pivot in Forest’s 4-2-3-1 formation.
This squad depth has been rather fortunate, as bigger teams like Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have struggled with injuries. Forest have capitalized on the decline of teams who historically finish higher, with City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Villa, United and Spurs all behind them in the table. Forest’s positive approach has coincided with these teams faltering, and as a result, the chances of them finishing in the top four of the Premier League are even higher.
Lastly, manager Nuno Espírito Santo has influenced the identity of the team. Although his impact is tougher to explain through numbers, Nuno has given his players belief. His comments after every game display that he is not complacent and it motivates his players. It gives them the self-confidence to compete with elite company. They have won at Anfield, they have taken three points against mid-table teams they would’ve previously struggled against and now they have no reason to believe they cannot win every game.
If Forest can continue this upward trend, they might just end up playing in the Champions League next season. If not, they can be proud of how far they have come. From almost being relegated from the Championship to competing against the Big Six, they have done their fans proud, and they look to take care of business towards the end of the season. Can the defense remain as organized as they have been? Will Wood keep scoring? Or will it all end in heartbreak?
