The women’s UEFA Champions League semi-finals are underway, with the men set to begin later this week, as four teams in each tournament vie for club soccer’s ultimate trophy. On the men’s side, Barcelona will face Inter Milan in a cross-Mediterranean bout, while Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal will square off from across the channel.
While Barcelona, Inter Milan and Arsenal made up three of the four top spots from the beginning, PSG started their run with a stumble. They barely managed to be seeded into the knockout playoffs, finishing 15th out of 36 teams, with a record of 4-1-3.
They immediately corrected course, however, demolishing Stade Brestois 29 by an aggregate score of 10-0. The next opponent in their way, Liverpool, was not as easy. Liverpool was the number one seed at the outset, and while PSG did manage to beat them, it was on a 1-1 aggregate that required penalties to decide.
Aston Villa proved easier in the quarter-finals, but only slightly, as PSG pushed past them with an aggregate score of 5-4 after two matches, despite a 3-2 loss in the second match. PSG will face Arsenal in the semi-finals, their third English opponent in four rounds.
The journey has been smoother for the other semi-finalists, largely because they have only had to play three rounds due to their superior finishes in the table stage. Arsenal beat PSV Eindhoven 9-3 on aggregate in the round of 16, followed by an aggregate score of 5-1 against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals.
Barcelona beat Benfica 4-1 on aggregate in the round of eight and then secured a quarter-final win against Borussia Dortmund with an aggregate score of 5-3.
Inter Milan beat Feyenoord 4-1 on aggregate in the round of eight, followed by the tightest round for the top-table teams with a 4-3 aggregate win over Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals.
Predictions for who will win in the semi-finals are split: While some favor PSG over Arsenal, others favor Arsenal to not just beat PSG, but win the whole tournament. While Arsenal’s statistics of goals scored and conceded are more impressive, the team controls the ball far less than PSG on average, which the French side will have to exploit. Both these teams are also in lengthy UEFA Champions League droughts, never having won the trophy before.
What oddsmakers and predictors do agree on, however, is their strong favoritism of Barcelona over Inter Milan. This match will likely prove interesting no matter what, as Inter Milan’s stingy defense, who have only conceded an average of about half a goal per game, comes up against Barcelona’s explosive offense, who average over three goals per game.
Arsenal and PSG will fight for a spot in the finals on April 29 in London, followed by a second match on May 7 in Paris. Barcelona and Inter Milan will compete in their first leg on April 30 in Barcelona. The second leg will take place on May 6 in Milan. Once the winners are determined, the finals — which are best of one — will be played at the Allianz Arena, home of Bayern Munich, on May 31.
On the women’s side, two familiar faces and two teams that differ from the men’s bracket prepare to compete. Barcelona and Arsenal’s women’s teams have both qualified alongside their men’s counterparts. Joining them is Olympique Lyonnais Féminin and Chelsea. Lyon’s men’s side did manage to make the quarter-finals in the lower Europa League, but Chelsea’s men’s team failed to qualify for any UEFA competition. Women’s PSG went out in round two before the group stage, and Inter Milan failed to qualify. Although there will be a women’s Europa Cup next year, the league does not currently exist, leaving Inter Milan’s women’s team without any European competition.
All four women’s semi-finalists finished at the top of their groups in the initial stage (the women’s league operates off the group stage instead of the league stage the men play). Barcelona and Lyon both decisively won their quarter-final matchups: Barcelona with a 10-2 aggregate win over VfL Wolfsburg and Lyon with a 6-1 aggregate win over Bayern Munich. The English clubs, on the other hand, had more trouble. Both English clubs won 3-2 on aggregate, Arsenal beating Real Madrid and Chelsea topping fellow English side Manchester City.
The women’s teams have already played in the first leg of the semi-finals. Lyon won 2-1 to Arsenal at home, and Barcelona smashed Chelsea 4-1, also at home. Chelsea will at least have the comfort of their home stadium in their attempt to reverse their fortunes, but Arsenal will have to turn their series around on the road.
Fans predict that Barcelona is unlikely to lose their lead on the series, even on the road, as they score almost 4.5 goals per game while only conceding around 0.7 goals on average. Chelsea, on the other hand, concedes around double that many goals while scoring only 2.5 goals per game on average.
On the other side of the bracket, the stats are closer but still favor Lyon. While Arsenal concedes almost 1.5 goals per game, Lyon is well under 0.5 goals conceded per game. The two teams’ goal-scoring statistics are a bit closer, with Arsenal just under 2.5 goals scored per game and Lyon at three. However, it still seems unlikely that Lyon will lose badly enough at home to not make the finals.
Arsenal — only having lost by one in the first leg — still has a realistic chance, while Chelsea seems doomed. However, these two English clubs lost the first leg of their quarter-finals matchup and had to rally to win the series as a whole, so it’s not out of the question to do so again.
The next leg of the semi-finals will be played on April 27 for both series, so fans are waiting patiently to see if either series reverses fortune. The finals are set to be played on May 24, nearly a month after the semi-finals finish and after the men’s finals, at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon.
