It’s officially that time of year — the College Football Playoff (CFP) race has begun to pick up steam. As of right now, with maybe one or two exceptions, one could make the case that no team is truly a safe lock in the newly installed 12-team NCAA playoff format. With many crucial games ahead in the next couple of weeks, here are how things stand at the dawn of the last month of the college football regular season.
Following release of the first ESPN college football playoff ranking, twelve teams are currently predicted to compete for a National Championship this January. With three teams from the Big Ten, four teams from the Southeastern Conference (SEC), two representatives from the Big 12, one from the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), one independent and one non power-four team from the ACC, as the committee envisioned it, there is much variety within the playing field right now.
Five out of the twelve teams that make the CFP will be conference champions. The other seven to be the next highest ranked teams in sequential order. Judging based on how the seeding played out last year, it would be safe to assume that ten of the twelve teams will come from the power-four conferences, leaving two spots open for an independent and the highest ranked non-power four team.
Starting out with the Big Ten conference, Ohio State University and Indiana University appear to be the first two locks for the playoffs, as they currently stand undefeated. Ohio’s win against a formidable University of Texas squad in their first game is looking more impressive by the week. Assuming they don’t drop against 3-5 University of California, Los Angeles and 5-5 Rutgers University in the ensuing weeks, Ohio State would remain in the mix even if they lose to a ranked Michigan squad.
The team the Buckeyes would likely face in the Big Ten championship is none other than the Indiana Hoosiers — perhaps the hottest team in the country. The Hoosiers are undefeated through ten games for the second straight season under head coach Curt Cignetti, and with an impressive win against a top ten team in the University of Oregon, the Hoosiers should be a guarantee for the twelve team bracket after a gritty win in Happy Valley this Saturday.
Oregon also finds themselves on the cusp of being admitted into the tournament with crucial games on the line. A win against University of Iowa this past Saturday boosted their resume undoubtedly, and with upcoming games versus ranked University of Washington and the University of Southern California, the Ducks might only need to win one of the next two games for a spot in the playoff race.
According to analytics, Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon all hold a greater than 80% of making the playoffs after their victories in Week 11; if the midwest squads take care of business as predicated and Oregon can pick up one win against USC and Washington in the next three weeks, the Big Ten is on track to send three representatives to the College Football Playoff.
Predicting the teams out of the SEC is a puzzle that could take days to figure out. Starting out with the teams most likely from this conference, Texas A&M University, the University of Georgia and the University of Alabama shouldn’t have much issue being admitted by the committee come late November. After coming off of three straight road victories in tough environments, Aggies head coach Mike Elko certainly believes his team deserves some praise for their impressive resume thus far.
“I don’t know how many times someone has gone on the road three straight weeks in this conference and finished that stretch 3-0,” Elko said.
Their biggest test the rest of the way out will come in the last week against Texas. Georgia and Alabama are two other teams likely to make it, as they both sit at 8-1. Alabama perhaps holds the better resume as they’ve come victorious against four ranked teams in the SEC.
Georgia likewise holds impressive wins, but their chances will depend on how they fare in two of their next three games against ranked teams in Texas and Georgia Tech University. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are the fourth team from the SEC who are likely to be admitted if the season were to end today, and after coming off impressive victories versus the University of Oklahoma and the University of South Carolina, they shouldn’t have much issue cruising to a spot if they’re able to hold off versus a spiraling University of Florida squad and a mediocre-at-best Mississippi State University team.
Assuming the committee lets in a fifth team from this gauntlet of a conference, analyst Joel Klatt believes this will leave one remaining spot among five potential candidates: Texas, Vanderbilt University, Oklahoma or the University of Tennessee. Though all have been through an undoubtedly brutal schedule, it would be hard for the committee to let in two teams with three losses, eliminating the hopes of the University of Missouri and Tennessee.
Oklahoma has the most opportunities within the coming stretch of games to earn a spot, as a win next week against N0. 4 Alabama and No. 19 Missouri should be enough for the committee to let them in. Texas and Vanderbilt both also hold matchups against ranked teams in the final three weeks, but Texas’s win against Vanderbilt in Week 10 might be the ultimate tie breaker between these two qualified teams. With a win against Georgia next week, it’d be tough to keep the Longhorns out of discussion for a final bid.
Unlike the SEC, the ACC is on track to send much fewer teams to the tournament this year. As it stands currently, Georgia Tech, the University of Virginia and University of Miami all hold greater than 30% chances to make it to the CFB through 11 weeks of play according to many metrics. One of these teams will be let in depending on the winner of the conference championship game, and right now, Virginia is the favorite to do so even after a surprising loss versus Wake Forest University this past Saturday. If Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) pulls off an upset against No. 5 Georgia in the last game, then they also might receive some recognition by the committee and make it to the conference championship.
Yet for all, Virginia, Miami and Georgia Tech all have relatively weaker resumes than many other teams. The winner of the conference is in automatic bid, so it will be most important to first reach the conference title game because as of now it’s looking more and more likely that only one of these teams will represent the ACC.
The last of the four major conferences, the Big 12, is also on track to send only one team to the college football playoffs. Texas Tech University’s astounding victory against undefeated Brigham Young University (BYU) undeniably put them in the driver’s seat to win the conference, as they currently hold an 87% chance of making it. However, as is the case with the ACC, it will all come down to the winner of the conference in early December. It’s very possible that BYU finds themselves competing in the postseason after getting revenge on Texas Tech in the title game.
This leaves two final spots for the College Football Playoffs. One of these two teams has to be the highest ranked non-power-four conference winner, and the other, well, it’s likely it will be Notre Dame University once again if they can keep their act together for the remaining weeks. ESPN sports analyst Heather Dinich believes that if they can hold off versus ranked University of Pittsburgh, Syracuse University and Stanford University in the coming weeks, a 10-2 Irish squad would be tough to keep out. For the last spot, the teams in the running are Tulane University, the University of Memphis, the University of South Florida or James Madison University. The winner of the ACC is most likely to be the final team to make it into playoffs, and Tulane’s impressive underdog victory puts them with the highest chances of winning the conference.
Below are the final projections of the College Football Playoffs:
1) Ohio State (Big 10 Conference Champion)
2) Indiana
3) Texas A&M (SEC Conference Champion)
4) Alabama
5) Georgia
6) Oregon
7) Texas Tech (Big 12 Conference Champion)
8) Ole Miss
9) Notre Dame
10) Virginia (ACC Conference Champion)
11) Texas
12) Tulane (ACC Conference Champion)
Despite these predictions, there is absolutely a possibility of crazy upsets where even the teams with one or no losses at the moment find themselves left out of the College Football Playoffs. Each team’s path to the playoff bracket depends on a combination of key wins, receiving help from other teams and pure luck. It’s going to be another incredible ride for fans as the season welcomes a crazy last stretch of games.
