The Lampert Institute for Civic and Global Affairs and the Division of University Studies welcomed Tom Standage, deputy editor of The Economist and editor of its annual forecasting series “The World Ahead,” to Golden Auditorium in Little Hall on Thursday, Sept. 4.
Standage, who joined The Economist in 1998 and authored seven books of history, including “A History of the World in 6 Glasses,” offered Colgate University students and faculty a rare preview of the forthcoming “World Ahead 2026” before its official publication.
Although the edition is still being finalized, Standage offered his opinion about various world events.
“This is my best guess of what those [top ten forecasts] are going to be,” he said. Standage opened with an assessment of American politics.
“Surprise, surprise, the main thing that is going to happen next year is that Trump’s rule is going to continue, and the world will continue to struggle to adjust to it,” Standage said.
He added that President Trump’s decision-making style, which Standage describes as run by character and executive order rather than clear policies, has left Washington in a state of unpredictability.
He noted that the United States’ 250th anniversary will sharpen partisan divides, as Republicans and Democrats describe the same country in unrecognized terms. Standage discussed how the Democratic Party’s internal struggle will test whether progressives, centrists or populists, like California Governor Gavin Newsom, set the tone heading into 2026.
Turning to geopolitics, Standage observed that America’s unipolar moment is over. Competing interpretations of this shift frame the international order as either a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing, a return to 19th-century spheres of influence, or, as he believes, more likely, geopolitical drift and decay.
The war in Ukraine, he predicted, will grind on with continued strikes against Russian oil infrastructure, and Europe may try to justify higher defense budgets by framing them as job-creating economic stimulus.
Standage also highlighted the dual promise and peril of artificial intelligence. He described how marketing campaigns now promote virtual employees — software agents that businesses can hire instead of humans.
“Instead of hiring a human, you pay for a virtual employee like a software engineer or a digital marketer,” Standage said. “I can’t think of a more effective way to reignite concerns about AI job losses than explicitly selling it as a replacement for human workers.”
According to Standage, such framing risks intensifying fears about job loss while offering little clear evidence of productivity gains. He warned that AI is one of several potential triggers for a global financial crisis in 2026, alongside bond market stress and cryptocurrency instability.
“It’s very worrying that these plausible triggers are in areas that are supposed to be safe,” Standage said.
Despite political turmoil, Standage noted signs of progress on climate. China’s renewable capacity is now growing faster than its electricity demand, flattening emissions. In Pakistan, 25 percent of electricity for textiles comes from solar power, while Ethiopia has banned gasoline cars in favor of electric vehicles.
He also pointed to the quiet phenomenon of green hushing, which refers to companies exceeding sustainability targets without publicizing them for fear of political backlash.
“Despite all the ups and downs, the green transition is quietly powering ahead,” Standage said.
In closing, Standage previewed how events ranging from the 2026 FIFA World Cup to the spread of new GLP-1 weight-loss drugs will shape global discourse.
“[The drugs could] extend the debate about performance enhancement beyond elite sport to everyday health choices,” he said.
Standage framed the forecasts as provisional, inviting Colgate students to think critically about uncertainty.
“Reality is chaotic,” he said. “We don’t expect the clarity of a sudden realignment model where you can go, ‘ah, now this is how the world works.’”
Sophomore Devika Oldfield felt the speaker event encouraged her to consider further implications of world events in the coming year.
“I am interested to see the changes that continue to happen in our world,” Oldfield said. “AI progressing, constant wars and political turmoil all contribute to changes in the next year.”
Senior and Lampert Scholar Corrigan Peters shared Oldfield’s appreciation of Standage’s expert opinion on world affairs.
“It’s pretty cool to go to a talk from someone with his level of knowledge and experience, and it’s crucial for students to get a chance to learn about the world, not just from professors and peers, but from guest speakers with unique careers and perspectives.”
